Archive for Forex Basics

Daily Forex Review 22/02/12

USD Dollar (USD) – The US Dollar gained versus most majors erasing early gains after the Greek aid package approval was digested by investors. Greece’s bailout will prevent it from declaring bankruptcy over the next month or two, but the question regarding the exit of Greece from the Euro remains open. US stock markets finished mixed, the Dow Jones rose by 0.12% and the Nasdaq declined by -0.11%. The Dow Jones briefly topped the 13,000 mark but finished at 12,965.69. Crude Oil continued gaining with a 2.19% rise, closing at $105.87 as investors fear Iran’s reactions regarding its oil exports. Gold (XAU) gained by 2%, closing at $1,759 an ounce. Today, Existing Home Sales are expected with a rise from 4.61M to 4.66M.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro erased early gains versus the Dollar after European Governments decided to aid Greece instead of calling for it to declare bankruptcy next month. Greece’s second bailout was approved, awarding it 130 billion Euros in aid. European Stock exchanges finished lower, the DAX30 declined by -0.58% and the CAC40 by -0.21%. The EUR/USD is currently considered bullish above the 1.31 support level and the pair faces its next resistance level around 1.33.  Today European, French and German Manufacturing and Services PMI will be released. Industrial New Orders are expected with a 0.6% rise versus -1.2% previously.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3230

Resistance 1.3300 1.3320 1.3350
Support 1.3150 1.3120 1.3050

 

British Pound (GBP) – The British Pound declined after the Euro Zone Finance Ministers’ agreement on Greece’s second bailout was digested by investors. The FTSE 100 declined by -0.29% at 5,928.20 and the GBP/USD continues to be bullish as long as it remains above the 1.5750 support level. The pair is facing its next major resistance at the 1.5920 level. Today, MPC Meeting Minutes will be released and are likely to give some indication regarding future asset purchasing plans of the BOE.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.5780 

Resistance 1.5900 1.5930 1.5970
Support 1.5750 1.5700 1.5640

 

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen continued declining versus the Dollar reaching near its lowest level since August the 4th as demand for the safety of the Yen continued to wane. Technically, the USD/JPY broke above its strong resistance level at 79.50 and the momentum continues to be bullish. No major economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY – Last: 79.75

Resistance 80.00 80.45 80.75
Support 79.50 79.00 78.75

Canadian Dollar (CAD) The Canadian Dollar weakened versus the Greenback after Core Retail Sales came out with a 0.0% change versus the 0.1% expected, indicating slower economic activity. Investors fear Iran will halt oil exports to more European countries. The USD/CAD is still on a downtrend and a break below the 0.9890 support level could lead to a fall in the pair. No economic data is expected today.

USD/CAD – Last: 0.9970

Resistance 0.9980 1.0025 1.0050
Support 0.9900 0.9850 0.9800

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Daily Forex Review 21/02/12

USD Dollar (USD) – The US Dollar declined versus most majors as optimism regarding the Greek aid package sapped safe haven demand. Several key points of division remain in order to approve Greece’s bailout and prevent it from declaring bankruptcy next month. The US stock markets remained closed due to Presidents’ Day. Crude Oil gained by 1.5% closing at $105.10 and remains bullish above the $100 mark. Gold (XAU) gained by 0.63% closing at $1,732 an ounce. No economic data is expected today.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro continued to gain versus the Dollar as Greece’s second bailout is likely to be approved today. Delays or a dismissal of the bailout could lead to sharp declines in the Euro. Stock exchanges in Europe finished higher, the DAX30 gained by 1.46% and the CAC40 by 0.96%. The EUR/USD is currently considered bullish above the 1.31 support level. The pair faces its next resistance level around 1.33.  Today, the ECOFIN meetings will be held in Brussels.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3210

Resistance 1.3280 1.3320 1.3350
Support 1.3150 1.3120 1.3050

 

British Pound (GBP) – The British Pound gained as optimism rose and Home Prices increased, in more signs that the economy is improving. The FTSE 100 gained by 0.68% at 5,945.25 and the GBP/USD continues to be bullish as long as it remains above the 1.58 support level. The pair is facing its next major resistance at the 1.5920 level. Today, Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected with -8.9B versus 10.8B previously.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.5830 

Resistance 1.5900 1.5930 1.5970
Support 1.5800 1.5770 1.5700

 

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen declined versus the Dollar nearly reaching its lowest level since August the 4th as demand for the safety of the Yen wanes. Technically, the USD/JPY broke above its strong resistance level at 79.50 and the momentum continues to be bullish. No major economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY – Last: 79.60

Resistance 80.00 80.45 80.75
Support 79.40 79.00 78.75

Canadian Dollar (CAD) The Canadian Dollar remained strong versus the Greenback after oil prices rose to a 9 month high. Iran said it halted Crude Oil exports to the UK and France as a response to sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program. The high yielding Loonie is set for more gains as economic conditions seem to be improving and investors turn to more risky assets but a change in the current optimism could bring a reversal. The USD/CAD is currently on a downtrend and a break below the 0.9890 support level could lead to a fall in the pair. Today, Core Retail Sales are expected with 0.1% versus 0.3% previously. Retail Sales are expected with -0.2% and Wholesale Sales are expected with 0.6%.

USD/CAD – Last: 0.9950

Resistance 0.9980 1.0025 1.0050
Support 0.9900 0.9850 0.9800

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Daily Forex Review 16/02/12

USD Dollar (USD) The US Dollar strengthened versus most major currencies on a statement from the Fed Chairman, Bernanke, who said earlier at the FOMC that there is no need for a QE3 at the moment. The TIC Long-Term Purchases came out at 17.9B worse than the expected 62.3B and Industrial Production (MoM) came out 0.0% worse than expected at 0.7%. The stock market closed negative as the Dow Jones fell by 0.76% and the NASDAQ fell by 0.55%. Crude oil rose by 1.10% after crude oil inventories came out less than expected on false news about Iran halting the supply of crude oil to six European countries. Later, however, the Iranian government published a notice denying this was true. At the end of the day crude oil closed at $101.80 a barrel. Gold (XAU) rose by 0.4%, or $10.40, after 4 days of decline and closed at $1728.1 an ounce. Today, the Housing Starts are expected to come out at 0.68M vs. 0.66M previously and initial jobless claims are expected to come out at 3550K vs. 3515k previously. The Fed Chairman, Bernanke, will speak.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro fell versus the Greenback as Greek Finance Minister, Evangelos Venizelos, accused certain Euro area nations of wanting Greece to leave the union.  The German Prelim GDP came out at -0.20% better than the expected -0.30%. The EUR/USD’s momentum is negative below the 1.3150 level and as long as the pair is trading below this level, the Euro may continue to weaken. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3006 and with a high of 1.3190. Today, the ECB monthly report is expected.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3020

Resistance 1.3050 1.3090 1.3150
Support 1.3000 1.2935 1.2900

 

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound closed unchanged versus the US Dollar after the Claimant Count Change came out at 6.9K vs. 3.2K previously and the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 8.4%. The GBP\USD’s momentum remains bearish below the 1.5770 level. The next support level on the 4 hour chart is located at 1.5650 and breaking this level will probably cause the Pound to decrease toward the 1.5600 level. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5662 and with a high of 1.5735. Today no major economic data is expected to be released.

GBP/USD – Last: 1.5672

Resistance 1.5735 1.5770 1.5825
Support 1.5650 1.5625 1.5550

 

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen closed unchanged against the Dollar after it fell to a three-month low versus the Dollar after the Central Bank increased its asset-purchase fund to 30 trillion Yen, expanding economic stimulus measures for the first time since October. The USD/JPY’s momentum is bullish as long as the pair is trading above the 77.80 level. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 77.17 and with a high of 78.65 No economic data is expected to be released today.

USD/JPY-Last: 78.40

Resistance 78.50 78.60 78.70
Support 78.30 78.20 77.90

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian dollar slipped from its highest level in almost a week versus its US counterpart on speculation that an aid package for Greece may be delayed until after it holds elections this year, damping appetite for riskier assets. As long as the pair is trading below the 1.0040 level, the US Dollar’s momentum remains negative. Overall, the USD/CAD traded with a low of 0.9937 and with a high of 1.0028. Today, Manufacturing Sales (MoM) are expected to drop from 2% to 0.50%

USD/CAD – Last: 1.0019

Resistance 1.0040 1.0070 1.0140
Support 1.0000 0.9980 0.9960

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